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| #608943 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 18.Jun.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013 SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER IN A BAND OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE WILL DECREASE AND BEND WESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 12 AND 24 HOURS DUE TO A MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION COULD ATTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO. IN FACT...BASED ON THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST AND TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS...THERE IS ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE CYCLONE BEING A TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS. BECAUSE OF THAT POSSIBILITY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS... THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 18.9N 92.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 19.2N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 19.2N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 19.0N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/0000Z 19.0N 97.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
