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| #609054 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 19.Jun.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...IF IT IS NOT ONE NOW. IN FACT...A MEXICAN NAVY METEOROLOGICAL STATION MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN GUSTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION EARLIER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CURRENT SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO ABATE AS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS ROOM FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING 280 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS... THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY THE STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 19.6N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.5N 95.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 19.5N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/1200Z 19.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
