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| #615207 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 10.Jul.2013) TCDAT3 REMNANTS OF CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 AFTER FINDING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A CENTER EARLIER TODAY...THE SAME AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS INVESTIGATING THE STORM AND DETERMINED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE DATA SHOWED A VERY STRONG WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF A WAVE...WHICH IS NOW ALONG 73 OR 74 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE REMNANTS ARE STILL ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. EVEN THOUGH CHANTAL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THIS WEATHER WILL SPREAD WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...CUBA AND FLORIDA WHERE THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE HEADED. THIS WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF NECESSARY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 16.5N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...REMNANTS OF CHANTAL 12H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
