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| #6187 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 27.Aug.2004) TCMAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004 0900Z FRI AUG 27 2004 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 48.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 48.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 48.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.3N 50.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.5N 58.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 21.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 21.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 48.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA |
