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| #619746 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 26.Jul.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 DORIAN APPEARS TO STILL HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS MEASURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS...BUT IT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE DORIAN A REMNANT LOW IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN...NEW CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP. THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ADVISORY CYCLES AND MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. SHIPS AND LGEM RE-INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE A LITTLE BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH GRADUALLY WEAKEN DORIAN. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES...AND AS TROPICAL CYCLONE...REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH...IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...OR HOPEFULLY SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.9N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 18.8N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 19.3N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0000Z 20.0N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 21.0N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
