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| #619794 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 27.Jul.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 AM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF DORIAN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE CYCLONE...WHICH SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION COULD BE SHORT-LIVED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RECENT OSCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT DORIAN NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/19. A STRONG LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE QUICKLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DORIAN IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE 15-20 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS WELL AS MOVE THROUGH A DRY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HR. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 72 HR... AND THUS DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THE AREA WEST OF THE FORECAST POINT OF DISSIPATION ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-GENERATION AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.2N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.6N 53.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 19.2N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 19.8N 61.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 20.4N 64.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 21.0N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
