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| #619856 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 27.Jul.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 AM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 DORIAN HAS A VERY DISORGANIZED SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO A FEW CLUSTERS AND NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A DRY AIR MASS...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF DORIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM SOON. GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. ALTERNATIVELY...SINCE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BARELY CLOSED... DORIAN COULD OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AT ANY TIME. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD...OR 280/20. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING. A MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...ALONG WITH THE WEAK WIND FIELD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT NEEDED FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.5N 52.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.9N 55.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 19.5N 59.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 20.2N 63.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 20.7N 66.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 21.5N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
