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| #621597 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 AM 03.Aug.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 AM AST SAT AUG 03 2013 RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...LOCATED EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ASCAT-B AND ASCAT-A OVERPASSES AT 0200 UTC AND 0244 UTC...RESPECTIVELY... DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF 30-KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED 35- TO 36-KT VECTORS. IN ADDITION...DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE FLORIDA WSR-88D RADAR HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN INDICATING PATCHES OF 35- TO 40-KT WINDS WITH ISOLATED VALUES TO 45 KT AT 5000-5500 FT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA... ADVISORIES ARE BEING RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN. AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BEING ASSIGNED TO DORIAN BASED ON THE LARGER-SCALE WIND FIELD NOTED IN ASCAT DATA. ALTHOUGH DORIAN COULD BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...I HAVE OPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY HIGHER WINDS BY INCREASING THE GUST FACTOR FROM THE STANDARD 40 KT UP TO 45 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY 18-24 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRONGER WIND SHEAR. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT DORIAN COULD SHEAR APART AND WEAKEN SOONER THAN FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/05 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH...AND THEN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY 72 HOURS...DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHEN IT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF DORIAN DOES BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE... WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS OR WATCHES FOR ANY LAND AREAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 28.7N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 29.9N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 31.4N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 33.0N 72.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 35.2N 67.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
