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| #621656 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 03.Aug.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013 STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR BECAME ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE EARLY MORNING...AND FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONSISTS OF A TIGHT CIRCULATION OF LOW CLOUDS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOT MORE THAN 30 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURING IN A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE PREVAILING STRONG SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TODAY. THE DEPRESSION OR THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 TO 15 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 30.6N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 32.1N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1200Z 34.0N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 37.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
