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| #6226 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 27.Aug.2004) TCMAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004 2100Z FRI AUG 27 2004 INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 49.8W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 49.8W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 49.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.9N 51.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.9N 52.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 55NE 45SE 45SW 55NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.9N 54.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.7N 56.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 65NE 55SE 55SW 65NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.6N 60.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 130SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 21.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 22.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART |
