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| #624872 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 17.Aug.2013) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. ERIN IS STILL OVER 25-26C WATERS...AND ALTHOUGH THE SSTS INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CONTINUED IMPACT OF DRY STABLE AIR COMBINED WITH EVEN STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ERIN DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...THIS CERTAINLY COULD OCCUR SOONER AS SHOWN BY AT LEAST A FEW MODELS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. A SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10. A TURN TO THE LEFT...OR WEST-NORTHWEST...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. IF ERIN SURVIVES BEYOND A FEW DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 19.8N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 20.5N 37.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 21.1N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 21.8N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 22.6N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 25.0N 47.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 28.5N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
