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| #625205 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 18.Aug.2013) TCDAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 500 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 ERIN HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 N MI OF ITS CENTER FOR OVER 12 HOURS...AND NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY DRY LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR IN THE PATH OF THE REMNANT LOW WHICH SHOULD DISCOURAGE ATTEMPTS AT REGENERATION. THE LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...OR 260/7...WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUITE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 20.4N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 20.2N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 20.0N 43.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 19.7N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z 19.4N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
