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| #627085 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 25.Aug.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 ANIMATION OF HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM ALVARADO MEXICO...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA FROM VERACRUZ AND CAOATZACOALCOS MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS DELAYED DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES...BUT IS NOW EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE TO GET A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION AND STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTERWARDS AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...OR SOONER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...270/10....IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL CAUSE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED BUT IT IS STILL LIKELY THAT THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 19.5N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 19.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 20.4N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
