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| #630747 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 09.Sep.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 PM AST MON SEP 09 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO IS SHOWING MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED BENEATH THE COLD CLOUD TOPS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE LATEST SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN IS 47 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT. HUMBERTO APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING A BIT FASTER TO THE WEST...AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11 KT. THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...ALLOWING HUMBERTO TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ANOTHER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE AZORES AND FORCE HUMBERTO TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS DUE TO AN OVERALL EASTWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HUMBERTO CONTINUES ON A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TREND...AND CONDITIONS FAVOR THIS INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW CYCLES...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOWING THE MOST STRENGTHENING AND THE HWRF AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BARELY BRINGING HUMBERTO TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A PEAK IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS BEFORE HUMBERTO REACHES COLDER WATER AND CONTENDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. HUMBERTO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THEREFORE...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 13.7N 25.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 14.1N 26.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 14.8N 28.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 16.1N 28.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 18.2N 29.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 22.5N 30.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 25.5N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 26.5N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG |
