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| #630965 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 10.Sep.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013 ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BEEN EXPANDING WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T3.5/55 KT... RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 60 KT. THE MAIN IMMEDIATE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF HUMBERTO THAT MAY BE GETTING INTO THE INNER CORE...BUT OTHERWISE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM WATERS FAVOR AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...HUMBERTO WILL BE STRADDLING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...BUT IT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF 20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. WEAKENING IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED AFTER DAY 2. THE INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON A PEAK INTENSITY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 70 AND 80 KT...WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. SUBSEQUENTLY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HUMBERTO HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/7 KT. THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS NOW WEAKENING...AND THE EVOLVING PATTERN WILL ALLOW HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 36 HOURS. THEN...JUST AS SHARPLY AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE TURNING NORTHWARD... IT WILL TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD BY DAY 5 WHEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REBUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 15.0N 28.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 15.9N 28.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 17.6N 29.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 19.6N 29.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 21.5N 29.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 24.0N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 24.5N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 24.5N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BERG |
