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| #631146 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 AM 11.Sep.2013) TCDAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN REVEALING AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE... WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED AT THE MID-LEVELS ON A SSMI/S PASS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WHICH IS SURROUNDED BY A COUPLE OF DISTINCT CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN HAVE REACHED 4.4 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THIS BASIS..THE INITIAL INTENSITY AS BEEN SET AT 70 KNOTS. HUMBERTO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN AS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HUMBERTO HAS MADE THE EXPECTED SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS BEEN STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE OVER AFRICA. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND HUMBERTO WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS IS THE GENERAL SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP HUMBERTO MOVING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.7N 29.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 18.2N 29.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 20.0N 29.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 21.5N 30.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 23.0N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 24.0N 35.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 24.5N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 26.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
