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| #631534 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 PM 12.Sep.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013 GABRIELLE CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS STILL PRODUCING INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. EARLIER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE A FEW 35-KNOT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION...AND THIS VALUE IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND GABRIELLE WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE GABRIELLE TO RECURVE AND TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 34.4N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 36.3N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 40.5N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
