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| #631559 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 PM 12.Sep.2013) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 SATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME...A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING TO THE CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HWRF. GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE...IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 19.7N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 19.7N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 19.5N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.3N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.3N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 20.7N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 22.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN |
