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| #631693 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 13.Sep.2013) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...IT LACKS BANDING FEATURES. AN ASCAT OVERPASS AROUND 0200 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE...AND ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT OR LOWER. BASED ON THESE DATA...GABRIELLE IS ONCE AGAIN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. GABRIELLE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN IT WAS EARLIER...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 015/15. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY WHEN IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION OCCURRING EVEN SOONER THAN FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 36.5N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 40.5N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
