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| #631816 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 13.Sep.2013) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS CAUSING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR...AND THE CENTER OF INGRID IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A DROPSONDE FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET EARLIER TODAY WAS 999 MB. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. WE NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR INGRID TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL. INGRID IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST INGRID TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER TEXAS...INGRID SHOULD MAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THEN MOVE INLAND. THIS IS THE SCENARIO USED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF INGRID NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROM BOTH INGRID AND MANUEL WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.2N 95.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 19.5N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 20.8N 95.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 21.7N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 22.3N 97.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 22.5N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
