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| #631934 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 14.Sep.2013) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 ...INGRID MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 95.0W ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE INGRID. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB...29.26 INCHES IS BASED ON DATA FROM A MEXICAN BUOY. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
