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| #631991 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 14.Sep.2013) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT INGRID HAS INTENSIFIED. THE PEAK WIND REPORTED SO FAR BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 76 KNOTS AT 850 MB NORTH OF THE CENTER A FEW MINUTES AGO. ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST VALUES PROVIDED BY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. INGRID MOVED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT IT IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN ABOUT A DAY...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE INGRID TO MOVE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WESTWARD TURN HAS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY TO OCCUR AS INDICATED BY ALL MODELS...THE TIMING OF THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE COAST OF MEXICO VARIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE SLOWEST MODEL IS THE GFS WHICH KEEPS INGRID OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 3 MORE DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF INGRID NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 20.6N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 21.4N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 22.5N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.5N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 22.0N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 21.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
