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| #632058 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:41 PM 14.Sep.2013) TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA OF INGRID UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN PRESENT INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES...INCLUDING THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. INGRID IS THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2013 SEASON. BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO... BEFORE THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE LGEM/SHIPS MODEL PAIR. NONE OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS INGRID TO BECOME AN MAJOR HURRICANE. INGRID HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 OR 7 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOON...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL FORCE THE HURRICANE TO TURN WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. WHILE THE THE WESTWARD TURN IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR...AS SHOWN BY ALL THE MODELS...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF LANDFALL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST MODEL...KEEPING INGRID OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 60 HOURS OR MORE WHILE THE NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER TO THE COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVING CREDIT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 21.3N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 22.0N 94.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 22.7N 95.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 22.8N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 22.5N 98.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1800Z 22.0N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 21.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
