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| #632140 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 PM 14.Sep.2013) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 ...INGRID A LITTLE STRONGER... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 95.0W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES...AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD FROM BAHIA ALGODONES TO RIO SAN FERNANDO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO * SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... INGRID SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES...110 KM... NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF INGRID RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA EARLY MONDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
