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| #632230 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 15.Sep.2013) TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT JUST COMPLETED SEVERAL HOURS OF INVESTIGATION OF INGRID...AND FOUND LITTLE TO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL A HURRICANE. THE HIGHEST RAIN-CORRECTED SFMR OBSERVATION WAS 58 KT. A DROPSONDE NORTH OF THE CENTER SPLASHED WITH 59 KT BUT THE LAYER-AVERAGED SURFACE-ADJUSTED WINDS WERE 53-54 KT. THE PRESSURE IS UP TO 990 MB...AND MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NEARLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT. THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS DISRUPTED THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LESSEN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MODEST AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING...BUT THIS FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE PAST FEW FIXES POINT-TO-POINT SHOWED A WESTWARD MOTION...BUT A LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 290/5. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WHICH CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LIE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE TIMING OF LANDFALL IS A LITTLE HARD TO NAIL DOWN GIVEN THE SHEAR...AS A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE COAST WHILE A STRONGER ONE WILL LIKELY TAKE A MORE LEISURLY PATH. THE PRIMARY THREAT...APART FROM THE WIND HAZARD IN THE IMMEDIATE LANDFALL AREA...IS GOING TO BE FROM RAINFALL AND THE RESULTANT FLOODING. WITH BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM MANUEL BRINGING COPIOUS RAINS TO CENTRAL MEXICO...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 22.5N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 22.8N 96.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 23.0N 97.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 22.8N 98.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 22.5N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
