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| #632317 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 15.Sep.2013) TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV MISSION INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF INGRID REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. ALTHOUGH INGRID DOES NOT RESEMBLE A CLASSIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE PICTURES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. A COUPLE OF RECONNAISSANCE PLANES...ONE FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE...AND THE OTHER A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH MISSION...SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH AND SIZE OF INGRID THIS EVENING. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...AND DECREASE ABOUT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH INGRID COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BETWEEN THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT AND LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT IS INLAND OVER MEXICO. INGRID IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. INGRID SHOULD TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN BEND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL... AND THE NHC FORECAST GENERALLY SPLITS THESE DIFFERENCES AND IS CLOSE TO THE SPEED OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 22.7N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 23.0N 97.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 23.0N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 22.6N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1800Z 22.2N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
