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| #632392 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 15.Sep.2013) TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ABATED...AT LEAST FOR THE MEAN TIME. AROUND 21-22Z...A NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 989 MB. THE HIGHEST WIND DATA OBSERVED THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 76 KT AT 850 MB...62-63 KT SFMR BIAS-ADJUSTED...DROPSONDE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 64 KT...AND A DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT... WHICH MEANS THAT INGRID IS BARELY MAINTAINING HURRICANE STATUS. AFTER A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...INGRID APPEARS TO HAVE RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OF 290/05 KT. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. HURRICANE INGRID SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA. A COMPARISON OF RADAR FIXES AT 35000 FEET AND THE RECONNAISSANCE SURFACE POSITIONS INDICATE THAT MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL TILTING THE UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE TIME OF LANDFALL...WHICH MEANS THAT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT INGRID IS MOVING INTO THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 23.1N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 23.2N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 22.9N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 22.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 22.1N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
