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| #632437 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 16.Sep.2013) TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED A LITTLE OVER INGRID...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 77 KT...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS CLOSING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. THE NHC WIND FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM PREDICTION. GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE CENTER FIXES...ALONG WITH THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS GAINED A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/6. HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE WEST A LITTLE LATER TODAY AND A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH STEERING BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS ALONG WITH INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE LATTER FEATURE TYPICALLY INDUCES A LEFTWARD BEND IN THE MOTION FOR LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THIS REGION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST HWRF MODEL TRACK. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM BOTH INGRID AND THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 23.4N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 23.3N 98.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0600Z 22.8N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 22.3N 99.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 22.0N 100.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
