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| #632574 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 16.Sep.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 PM AST MON SEP 16 2013 THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CANOPY THAT WAS NEARLY COVERING THE CENTER EARLIER HAS BEEN SHEARED EASTWARD WHILE THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A FRAGMENT OF A BAND LIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT IT TOO IS BEING SUBJECTED TO STRONG SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT ACCORDING TO SHIPS/UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. NEVERTHELESS...A MORNING ASCAT PASS INDICATED AT LEAST 40-KT WINDS ABOUT 60 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN IN RECENT HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS. SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE VORTICES HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER OF HUMBERTO TODAY...MAKING AN ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION MORE DIFFICULT THAN NORMAL. A LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF FIXES SUGGESTS A MOTION OF 300/05. THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS NO DIFFERENT THAN EARLIER. HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS INTO A COL REGION IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD UNDERGO RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO LIE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA...IN BETWEEN THE MORE-WESTERLY GFS AND THE MORE-EASTERLY ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE SHEAR OVER HUMBERTO IS STILL FORECAST TO DECREASE SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STORM SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE RELAXATION OF SHEAR AND WARMER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SUGGEST AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER THAT TIME...THE INTERACTION OF HUMBERTO WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES SHOULD ALLOW A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS BETWEEN DAYS 4-5. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER SHIPS OUTPUT AND THE LOWER INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS/LGEM THROUGH 48 HOURS AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF ALL THE GUIDANCE AT LATER TIMES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 27.3N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 28.4N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 29.5N 44.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 30.4N 45.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 31.2N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 33.5N 44.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 38.0N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 47.0N 30.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
