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| #635433 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 29.Sep.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...IT HAS LESS OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 30 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DECREASING SOME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE DRIER AIR IMPINGES ON THE SYSTEM. THESE MIXED SIGNALS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSER TO THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE. SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT...AS FORECAST...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/8. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO AMPLIFY TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 3 TO 4 DAYS WHEN ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 27.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 27.1N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 26.9N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 26.6N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 26.4N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 27.0N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 29.5N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 31.5N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
