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| #635795 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 01.Oct.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013 AFTER BEING SERIOUS DISRUPTED EARLY THIS MORNING...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS AND THERE IS JUST A LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT JERRY SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO MOVEMENT SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS STATIONARY. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...JERRY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD AND THEN A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREAS TO ITS WEST AND SOUTHEAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. THE NEW GFS FORECAST IS EVEN FASTER AND THIS IS A FAIRLY DRASTIC CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THIS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 28.1N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 28.4N 43.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 29.1N 43.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 30.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 31.0N 41.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 33.0N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 34.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 37.0N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
