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| #635819 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 02.Oct.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY IS SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVERALL...AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. JERRY CONTINUES TO BE INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WHILE JERRY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO....THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS BY 36 HOURS AND VERTICAL SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 5 DAYS... ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE INITIAL POSITION OF JERRY HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON A 1457Z AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE...SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THIS RELOCATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 045/05. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS JERRY IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. OVERALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 29.3N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 30.2N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 31.5N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 32.6N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 33.6N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 35.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 38.0N 26.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
