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| #635831 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 03.Oct.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 A FEW PUFFS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AROUND THE WELL- DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JERRY EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING ITSELF... PROBABLY DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS CAUSED DVORAK INTENSITY NUMBERS TO DROP FURTHER. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT...BASED PRIMARILY UPON PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AS WELL A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOW INDICATED SOONER...AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM OPENING UP AS A TROUGH WITHIN TWO DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE UKMET/ECWMF MODELS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE HEADING OF THE STORM IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...BUT THE FORWARD MOTION IS A BIT FASTER. A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF FIXES STILL YIELDS A NORTHEASTERLY MOTION ESTIMATE OF 050/08. JERRY SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TRACK OF JERRY SHOULD BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND DECELERATE ONCE IT BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE AND MOVES IN BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORTEX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 30.2N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 31.3N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 32.4N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 33.4N 34.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 34.4N 32.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 37.5N 28.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
