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| #635843 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 AM 03.Oct.2013) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013 JERRY IS PRODUCING ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 96 HOURS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER. THE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 050/10. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JERRY SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED...AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN A BIT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 31.0N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 32.9N 35.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 33.9N 33.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 35.2N 31.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 38.5N 27.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
