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| #636238 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 AM 04.Oct.2013) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013 ...KAREN A LITTLE WEAKER... ...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 90.2W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY SATURDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY... WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH...83 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
