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| #636319 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 04.Oct.2013) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 2100 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO DESTIN FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ELSEWHERE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 90.3W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 90.3W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 90.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 26.9N 90.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 27.9N 90.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 28.8N 89.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.9N 87.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 33.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 90.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
