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| #636518 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 05.Oct.2013) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 ...KAREN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 91.7W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS * LAKE MAUREPAS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN RAINBANDS. KAREN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... TERREBONNE BAY LOUISIANA TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...1 TO 3 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
