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| #636585 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 05.Oct.2013) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 400 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013 ...KAREN STILL A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 91.7W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST FROM ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...1 TO 3 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
