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| #640182 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 21.Oct.2013) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013 ALTHOUGH LORENZO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AS A RESULT OF 15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND T2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND TWO RECENT ASCAT PASSES WHICH SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AFFECTING LORENZO SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT BY 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALSO HELP DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE TO INFILTRATE THE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STEADY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN DECREASE THEREAFTER. THE SHEAR...COLDER WATER...AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. IF THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE...LORENZO COULD DISSIPATE ABOUT A DAY EARLIER THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT LORENZO HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 055/8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BUT JUST OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGEST STEERING FLOW. THEREFORE...LORENZO IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN A CONSTANT SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE JUST BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 29.3N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 29.7N 52.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 29.9N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 30.2N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 30.7N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 32.5N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
