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| #640348 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 22.Oct.2013) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013 THE EARLIER TREND OF ORGANIZATION ENDED LATE THIS MORNING...AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LORENZO SINCE THAT TIME. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD REACH LORENZO WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LORENZO SHEARING APART IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A BIT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORENZO IS LIKELY MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST OR 085/08. HOWEVER...CIRRUS CLOUD DEBRIS HAS BEEN OBSCURING THE CENTER SINCE THIS MORNING...MAKING THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE RATIONALE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. LORENZO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK SHOULD BEND NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS HAIR TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTERLY INITIAL MOTION AND NEAR BUT RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 29.4N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 29.5N 50.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 29.8N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 30.5N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 31.7N 46.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN |
