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| #640445 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 AM 23.Oct.2013) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013 A TRMM PASS FROM 0247Z NICELY SHOWED THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE THE SHEAR...LORENZO IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0...45 KT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 00Z MISSED THE CENTER BUT DID INDICATE THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS DO NOT EXTEND VERY FAR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE SHARPLY DECREASING... HOWEVER BY THAT POINT LORENZO SHOULD BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. CONSEQUENTLY...A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. LORENZO SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...AND WITH ANY LUCK...SOONER THAN THAT. THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING IS UNCHANGED. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE DEEP CONVECTION SEPARATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINLY BLENDS THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 29.6N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 30.0N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 30.6N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 31.6N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 32.7N 45.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
