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| #640627 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 23.Oct.2013) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013 LORENZO IS ALMOST DONE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS BEING BLASTED BY 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY VANISHED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB... AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT...LORENZO IS NOW DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS ACTUALLY FORECAST TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF LORENZO SLIDES EAST AND BECOMES COLLOCATED WITH THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER... COLDER WATERS AND DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT RESTRENGTHENING. ASSUMING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...LORENZO WOULD LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY. THE LOW SHOULD THEN DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORENZO HAS BEGUN TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/4 KT. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED NORTH OF LORENZO IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT VERY SOON. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD THEREFORE TURN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THAT HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 29.5N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 30.1N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 31.0N 46.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1200Z 32.0N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0000Z 33.1N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG |
