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| #640679 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 24.Oct.2013) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 500 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013 LORENZO IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THE DEPRESSION WAS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION LATE IN THE EVENING YESTERDAY...BUT A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT LORENZO...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTION FROM ORGANIZING. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...DRY AIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO LOSE STRENGTH. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE DEPRESSION IS TURNING TO THE LEFT...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/4. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF RUN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 29.8N 47.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 30.4N 47.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 31.4N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/1800Z 32.5N 44.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
