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| #640728 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 24.Oct.2013) TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013 DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON LORENZO. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT HAD ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS AND HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...LORENZO HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...DRY AIR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE HEADING NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION AS IT REMAINS WITHIN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 30.2N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 25/0000Z 31.0N 46.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1200Z 32.0N 45.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 33.0N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
