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| #64421 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:17 AM 03.Jan.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2006 ZETA'S CENTER APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5... CORRESPONDING TO A 55-KT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. AN SSMIS IMAGE AT 1116Z DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE RING...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE APPEARED TO BE AT MID-LEVELS AND DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND SO FAR THE STRONG WINDS IN THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT HAVE NOT HAD MUCH OF A DISRUPTIVE INFLUENCE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS CURRENTLY NEARING ZETA...IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SPLIT AND THIS COULD BRIEFLY CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING TODAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW NO WEAKENING UNTIL A LITTLE LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TAKING THEIR TOLL ON ZETA. EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER LOCATION IS NOT THAT OBVIOUS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 250/4. A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER A LARGE LOW MOVING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO TURN ZETA TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 23.0N 42.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 23.0N 42.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 23.0N 43.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 23.4N 44.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 24.5N 45.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 27.5N 46.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 30.0N 46.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
