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| #64460 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:14 PM 03.Jan.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2006 BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...ZETA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED-LOOKING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT. THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PRACTICALLY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE STORM AT THIS TIME. THIS TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS LIKELY TO BEGIN TO DISRUPT THE SYSTEM IN 12-24 HOURS. SO...ALTHOUGH YOU'VE HEARD THIS FROM US BEFORE...WE EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE TOMORROW. INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD...270/4. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ZETA SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IF ZETA WEAKENS FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE...IT WOULD PROBABLY FOLLOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN 3-4 DAYS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2100Z 23.2N 42.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 23.2N 43.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 23.4N 44.4W 50 KT 36HR VT 05/0600Z 24.2N 45.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 05/1800Z 25.3N 46.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 06/1800Z 28.0N 47.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 07/1800Z 29.5N 48.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED |
