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| #64496 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:17 PM 03.Jan.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2006 ZETA IS A TENACIOUS CYCLONE AND BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THE WINDS ARE AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE AND CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS ESTABLISHED AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG SHEAR. THE GFDL INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHARP TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS COULD BE A CASE OF TROUGH INTERACTION AIDING INTENSIFICATION. I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GFDL SOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. IT HAS ALREADY BEAT ME A FEW TIMES. HOWEVER...FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY ONLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS ZETA WITH 55 OR 50 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A WEAKENING THEREAFTER. ZETA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 250 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR SO AND THEN A NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN AS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF ZETA. AS THE TROUGH GOES BY...ZETA COULD TURN BACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BUT BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE BECOME A REMNANT LOW. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 22.7N 42.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 22.7N 43.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 22.7N 44.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 46.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 25.5N 46.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 28.5N 48.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 30.5N 51.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
