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| #64569 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:17 AM 04.Jan.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST WED JAN 04 2006 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES THAT ZETA IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS YESTERDAY BUT STILL HAS A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS CIRCULATION. THERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND QUIKSCAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS. PULSES OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ZETA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE UNFAVORABLE WINDS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6. ZETA IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH. AS AN APPROACHING STRONG WINTER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WINTER LOW WILL PASS BY VERY FAST AND WILL NOT INDUCE RECURVATURE. ZETA AS A WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD THEN MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. AS YOU CAN SEE...I RAN OUT THINGS TO SAY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 21.9N 44.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 22.0N 44.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 46.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 24.5N 47.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 48.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 28.0N 51.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 30.0N 54.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
