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| #64633 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:14 PM 04.Jan.2006) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST WED JAN 04 2006 A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER ZETA AT 2127 UTC SHOWED A NUMBER OF 35 KT VECTORS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS PROBABLY SPUN DOWN SOMEWHAT IN THE ENSUING HOURS...I AM SETTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 35 KT TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE. WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO GET THE BEST OF ZETA...AND THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRLY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ZETA IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TOMORROW...AND TO A REMNANT LOW SOON THEREAFTER. THIS REMNANT LOW WILL PROBABLY LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE EVENTUALLY LOSING ITS IDENTITY. AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...ZETA OR ITS REMNANT WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 21.7N 46.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 22.4N 47.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 23.9N 48.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 06/1200Z 25.2N 49.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 07/0000Z 26.2N 51.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 08/0000Z 28.0N 55.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED |
