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| #646455 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:38 AM 20.Nov.2013) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142013 1100 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013 MELISSA HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TRANSITION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...THE CLOUD PATTERN EXHIBITS CURVED BANDS WITH UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MELISSA HAS WEAKENED. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ALSO CHANGED FROM SUBTROPICAL TO TROPICAL STATUS AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. MELISSA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SHEAR. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT MELISSA SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE STORM IS NOW ACCELERATING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060 DEGREES AT 26 KNOTS. THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH AND THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP MELISSA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NHC FOREAST FOLLOWS THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH IN FACT IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 35.6N 47.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 37.6N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 40.0N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 41.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 22/1200Z 42.5N 24.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1200Z 42.0N 18.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
